There is nothing as boring as someone else’s scenario of the future. That’s why the four stories you are about to read should only be seen as starting points — an opening from which to think carefully about our common future as co-organizers, as business leaders, as consultants, as researchers, and most importantly, as people who must make their way in an increasingly complex world.

Given this complexity, how can we better know the potential impact of our decisions? How can we choose whether to keep or change jobs, whether to give our time to one endeavor or another, whether to settle one place or another, what kinds of long-term organizational decisions to make (to set ourselves up for better short-term organizational decisions) and what sort of life to try to create for ourselves and our families?

The people who developed these four scenarios of the future (plus one corollary) are not necessarily SoL members, but they frequent and inhabit the kinds of worlds that will be important to SoL in the future. They included consultants to internet startups, religious leaders, business school academics, writers and artists, community activists, Fortune 500 executives, venture capitalists, environmentalists, health care entrepreneurs, and so on. The organizers were looking for people who might bring perspectives to the attention of SoL members that could lead to surprises and unexpected insights. That presence of outsiders makes it easier to see the color of the water of the aquarium we swim within.

These four futures probably won’t come true in themselves, but they represent flavors of events and trends that will, almost certainly, influence the future of SoL members. By giving names to these flavors, we now pick up a handle with which to talk about our future. Yet these are not just extrapolations of current trends. Each describes a kind of threshold that the world must cross, a boundary to a different way of life:

Techno-Gods: The inexorable march of machine (and bio-machine) progress takes humanity across yet another technological threshold, into a significantly accelerated post-industrial environment.

Corporate Gatekeepers: Spurred by globalizing, merging corporations and increasingly uncertain governments, the world crosses a threshold of political organization, dominated by a few large corporate-governmental entities that seek what managers everywhere seek: Control over uncertainties.

New Renaissance: Western and Eastern societies cross a threshold of values awareness leading to a "new renaissance" that includes new institutional practices and a reformation in ways of living, (a future with its own unique challenges).

Virus World: The industrialized and developing worlds both cross a kind of "boiled frog" threshold of decline, in which every debilitating factor acts with the seeping decay of viral infection.

A Final Theme: Issues of Indentity

Having Fun with Scenarios:

• Method to use and incorporate into your management practices
• Method to use and benefit as an individual
• For more readings and information, the following resources are recommended
• <Click Here> to Download the Scenarios .PDF Version (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)